Markets Update

Anyone who predicted it would be a bumpy ride in Q1 of ’25 for public markets would have been right, so far. Last week we saw a number of moving pieces that contributed to a risk-off atmosphere, before we grinded higher on Friday to close the week down ~ 1%. Let’s start with the 2 most obvious stories from Trump, where policy uncertainty continues to be cited as 1 of the reasons for the recent sell-off.

1- Trump and his administration last week reiterated plans to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and announced a further 10% on Chinese goods. 2- Geopolitical concerns continue to be on the menu, and were highlighted at the end of the week when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House for a meeting with Trump, which devolved into a mostly uncomfortable argument between the leaders in front of 100+ members of the US and international press (and the rest of the world). Trump ended the on-camera interaction saying Zelensky was ‘gambling with World War III.’ Whoever had stocks going HIGHER from there during that afternoon on their bingo card, gets kudos & respect.

America’s darling stock, Nvidia, beat estimates last week, but concerns around gross margins outlook, and China headwinds raised enough concern to take the stock 7% lower on the week. Zooming out, the stock is up over 60% in the last 12 months and more than 400% in the last 3 years (charts below).

Looking out to this week, with earnings season basically behind us, the focus will be on more Tariff talk and any clarity we can get on economic implications there, along with some important US economic releases, with the biggest one being February’s US payroll report which will be released on Friday morning.

Charts of Interest

We got 2 months under the belt, a look at year-to-date performance for the S&P by sector. (Index on the whole is now +1.24% this yr)

Year-to-date, 12-month, and 3-year chart(s) for NVDA:

Good chart on the drawdown in a tech-heavy momentum basket of US stocks… now -20% from recent highs... This happened QUICK

Investor investment survey shows just how bearish folks got in last ~ 10 days, again this all transpired in short order

(What is the Investor Investment Survey?)

Not helping with sentiment is the recent beating that Bitcoin has taken, down > 25% from the Jan all-time-highs... and the meme coin frenzy of past few months (Dogecoin) is now down 60% from its peak

I thought this was an interesting chart, after hearing from WalMart on their earnings call last week talking about a cautious US consumer, ongoing concerns with inflation, and rising consumer debt

The American Dream is being pushed out

Awesome chart for any young bucks holding onto some credit card debt, PAY IT DOWN. Before you invest > You need to save... Before you save > you need to ELIMINATE credit card debt... #1 wealth killer, by FAR