From the Team @ HPLT 3/24
Markets Update
US stocks eked out a small gain last week after trading lower for 4 straight weeks, with 2-3% daily selloffs feeling like the norm. The S&P 500 seems to be stabilizing a bit after the move lower that started that 3rd week of February. The daily headline ping-pong around Trump’s tariffs appear to be slowing down, it feels like they are very consciously rolling out messages in a less chaotic fashion after the stock market went straight down for the better part of 3 weeks during peak headline-volatility. Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, spoke to the press last Wednesday and takeaways helped with more positive sentiment. Rates were left on hold, and Powell’s commentary appeared upbeat, suggesting inflationary impacts from future tariffs could be transitory and not long-lasting.
It feels like investors (retail + institutional alike) remain somewhat cautious around a slowing consumer (and how/where they spend $$), an uncertain macro backdrop, and a bumpy stock market. Trump 2.0 anxiety is an ongoing talking point but it seems to be concentrated to tariffs and DOGE efforts & implications. Let’s look at some relevant charts and observations below to further paint the current picture.
Year-to-date action by sector (S&P):
That same index (S&P) bumping up on Oct/Nov support levels:
Bullish investor sentiment reading, trying to bounce off multi-year lows
Data from the Fed last week: US households’ ability to come up with $2,000 for an emergency expense, now at its lowest level since the survey started in 2015
Worthy Recent Reads
PepsiCo to Acquire Beverage Co Poppi
Nike's Sales Are (Still) Tumbling
Trump Says Fed 'Much Better Off' Lowering Rates
U.S. Households Are More Invested in Stocks Than Ever Before
Amazon's Original 1997 Letter to Shareholders
Non-Business Related Read That I Loved / Wanted to Share
What No One Tells You About Being a Sports Parent
“Watching them rise, again and again — after missed shots, tough losses, or moments that broke them down. Seeing the grit build quietly, layer by layer, until one day you realize they’ve become someone who can handle hard things — on the field, in life.”
Great Glue-Guys Podcast Episode on Leadership with Sheryl Sandberg
Go get 'em this week…
Work Hard / Be Kind / Have Fun